The Turkish Stream pipeline is increasingly problematic for Russia. Even though it has recently agreed with Turkey on the route of the pipeline, it does not follow that deliveries will begin in December 2016 as stated by a Gazprom representative. Russia is very anxious to begin building the pipeline, because it wishes to use the pipes ordered for the first part of South Stream are sitting in warehouses on the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea. These pipes are already paid for, and if they continue to sit and rust then they will be a total loss. But that is Russia’s own fault for trying to force the South Stream on Bulgaria and the EU.

Economic facts complicate any realistic prospect of Turkish Stream being constructed. The conditions of the Third Energy Package that doomed the South Stream pipeline will apply to any extension of Turkish Stream past the Turkish-Greek border into EU territory. Moreover, it would require construction of more interconnectors if not new infrastructure altogether. Political conditions also militate against the success of Turkish Stream. First, the EU has taken the decision to decrease its dependence on gas from Russia. Second, Turkish Stream would eliminate Ukraine as a transit state, to which development the EU is opposed.

The Turkish government is negotiating very hard on the price for Russian gas. Its representatives have publicly stated that they do not exclude increasing Turkey’s off-take from the TANAP pipeline as its throughput is ramped up. The figures they mention largely equate to the volume of their imports from Russia along the so-called Western route. This is the volume that Turkish Stream would ostensibly replace if Ukraine were eliminated as a transit country.

Turkish Stream’s volume is supposedly projected to be 62 billion cubic meters per year through four individual pipes. Replacing supply to Turkey through Ukraine would take less than one of them. Pipes for the second “string” have also reportedly been manufactured and delivered. Russia would like to use them too, but it is far from clear who would buy the gas that they might carry. As a responsible member of the Turkish energy ministry stated at a conference recently attended by this writer, the gas through the other three strings could only go to Europe, and if Europe does not want it, then the pipelines will not be built.