It’s not going to happen in Riga next month, but in five to ten years Europe (by which I mean “Europe” and not only the European Union, i.e., including the European countries as members of NATO) may have digested its … Continue reading →
Press reports have indicated that what separates the United States and Turkey in their negotiations [over conditions for American access to Turkish territory and facilities for military action against Iraq in 2003] the size and nature of the economic package wanted by Ankara. This is partly true, but it is not the whole story, and not even necessarily the most important part of the story. It remains to be seen at what point the national interests of Turkey and the United States may diverge in practice, not only tactically on the ground but also strategically in the political aftermath of the war.
Continue reading →A “Self-determination Conflict Profile” summarizing its history from the 19th century, the role of the United States, proposed solutions and an evaluation of prospects for the conflict’s settlement.
Continue reading →Dissatisfaction among ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan is growing. Many have left since the country gained independence, and those who remain are feeling increasingly frustrated and excluded by "Kazakhization" policies.
Continue reading →This commentary provides background on Javakhetia, the ethnically Armenian region in southern Georgia, in order to establish that is not the next Karabakh and not another Abkhazia, and therefore neither flashpoint nor bottleneck for oil pipelines crossing the Caucasus from the Caspian to the Black Sea. Stability in Javakhetia is likely to continue, although in the long term there is a wild card: the Meskhetian Turks, a people deported by Stalin whose has been mandated to their homeland, which lies west of Javakhetia proper and east of Ajaria.
Continue reading →The signing of the Istanbul Protocol on the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline at the recent OSCE meeting was highly important politically to the leaders who signed it. But the project will in the long run be more important to the peoples of … Continue reading →
The military operations in the Balkans affect the calculations concerning export routes, via Kosovo Caspian energy. The near-term regional effect of the hostilities in Kosovo is to make the Baku-Ceyhan line slightly more likely. This is not to deny the … Continue reading →
[This page renders a post from the legacy blog from the legacy academic website, first published in Независимая газета, 16 January 1998, page 7.] … Continue reading →
Paper Presented to the International Society for Sociology of Religion, Twenty-third Congress, Quebec City, 26–30 June 1995. Abstract Despite a large literature in Occidental behavioural science, prior to the collapse of the USSR in 1991, on the “Islamic factor” in … Continue reading →